Welcome to the August edition of PennLive/Bravo Group’s Morning Scrapple, our snapshot of political opinion from the nation’s most important battleground state!
Summer’s winding down, the budget’s in the books, and we’re eleven weeks from November. We polled 711 registered Pennsylvania voters from August 18–22 and asked them about everything from congressional maps to Medicaid to how their wallets are doing (not great!).
The big summer story is our big US Senator whose coalition has turned completely inside out. Just see for yourself:
A 27-point swing in Republican approval since we started Morning Scrapple in April ‘25. We’ll have more on this below.
To find out how we can help you with your next research project, email us at morningscrapple@thebravogroup.com
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August approvals
Generally speaking, is the United States heading in the right or wrong direction?
U.S. wrong track: 55% (July) → 59% (August)
U.S. right track: 37% (July) → 34% (August)
Generally speaking, is Pennsylvania heading in the right or wrong direction?
PA wrong track: 40% (July) → 37% (August)
PA right track: 40% (July) → 42% (August)
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Donald Trump, President: 39% (July) → 39% (August) approve
Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Fetterman/Dave McCormick is doing in the US Senate?
Dave McCormick, U.S. Senator: 37% (July) → 41% (August) approve
John Fetterman, U.S. Senator: 44% (July) → 45% (August) approve
Those Fetterman numbers look unremarkable. Let’s take a closer look.
The Fetterman flip
Among Pennsylvania Democrats, John Fetterman’s approval is 22%. Among Pennsylvania Republicans, it’s 73%.
Ask about November, and the picture holds. If the Senate election were held today:
A sitting Democratic senator is running better with the opposing party than his own, by 35 points.
But the senator’s support from voters not registered with the Republicans or Democrats has stayed squarely in the middle of the seesaw … barely changing their position. In April ‘25, Fetterman’s approval was 37%; today it’s 36%.
Statewide, he sits at 39% re-elect against 61% for “someone else”, a number that has barely moved since July, because the collapse already happened.
Compare that to the other guy on the ballot.
2026 Gubernatorial
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Vote for Shapiro: 56% (July) → 62% (August)
Vote for someone else: 45% (July) → 37% (August)
That six-point move is the only tracking number this month that clears our margin of error. Shapiro isn’t just holding; he’s growing, and he’s doing it by taking Republicans with him. 34% of Pennsylvania
Republicans say they’d vote to re-elect him.
Head-to-head against the Republican nominee:
Either way you vote, Pennsylvanians are primed to make a choice…
How motivated are you to vote in the 2026 midterm elections for Governor, U.S. House, state and local officials?
…but they’re wary of the fringes
Which of these concerns you the most?
Nobody wants to redraw the maps. Not even for their own side.
Several states, including Texas and California, have redrawn their congressional district maps in the middle of the decade — outside the normal once-a-decade process — in order to gain a partisan advantage in Congress.
Should Pennsylvania redraw its congressional maps for partisan advantage before the next census, or should districts only be redrawn on the normal ten-year schedule?
Onto the Issues
Respondents were asked to choose the top three issues most important to them:
Back in June we showed you an animation of economy and healthcare converging. This month they traded places.
Healthcare: 48%
Economy: 46%
Inflation: 36%
Immigration: 28%
Democracy: 26%
Taxes: 24%
Fair warning from our research team: a two-point gap is well inside the margin of error, so we’re not going to tell you healthcare has dethroned the economy. What we will tell you is that the two lines have been converging for six straight months, and this is the first month healthcare is nominally on top. Watch it in September.
Speaking of healthcare…
Medicaid Funding
Medicaid is a joint federal-state program that helps cover healthcare costs for low-income families, children, and people with disabilities. Medicaid also reimburses hospitals for care provided.
Do you support or oppose increasing state government funding for Medicaid?
…and the economy
Cost of living
In the next 6 months, I expect the cost of living to:
Tariffs
How are tariffs placed on products you regularly purchase affecting you?
Tariff refunds
After the Supreme Court struck down many of the former tariffs, the federal government has issued companies over $100 billion in refunds.
Most companies are keeping this money rather than passing it on to customers, even though consumers paid higher prices for goods during that time.
How do you feel about this?
The PA Budget verdict is in
Overall, do you think this year’s state budget did more to address Pennsylvania’s affordability concerns, or did lawmakers mostly avoid the tough decisions?
We survey all Pennsylvania-registered voters through digital advertising, randomized text-message outreach, and email recontact with prior opt-in survey participants. This multichannel recruitment ensures a refreshed and representative respondent pool.
This digital survey of 711 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted from August 18-22, 2026. Results are weighted by age, gender, and political party to reflect Pennsylvania’s electorate, producing a 95% credibility interval: ±4.4 percentage points. You can read more about our methodology here.
If you have a question, suggestion, or would like to learn more about our research offering, please feel free to email us at morningscrapple@thebravogroup.com
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