Welcome to the June edition of PennLive/Bravo Group’s Morning Scrapple, our snapshot of political opinion from the nation’s most important battleground state!
Much like the PA budget, we’re also bleeding into July, and if you’d like to know how voters feel about blowing constitutional deadlines, well, you’re in for a treat below (hint: not great, Bob).
But something that is great is that June marks six months of our partnership with PennLive. To celebrate, we thought we’d slice and dice our Scrapple for the choice cuts from the first half of the year.
The big story is stability. Battle lines are drawn, and our core numbers have remained remarkably consistent: Trump’s approval has been pinned around 40% for six straight months, Fetterman has held steady in the mid-40s, McCormick has stayed near even (including the persistent ~20% who still don’t know him), and the issues most important to PA voters have remained level throughout.
In fact, to illustrate that last point, our handy animation shows you just what we’re talking about:
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June approvals
Generally speaking, is the United States heading in the right or wrong direction?
U.S. wrong track: 64% (May) → 54% (June)
U.S. right track: 30% (May) → 37% (June)
Generally speaking, is Pennsylvania heading in the right or wrong direction?
PA wrong track: 43% (May) → 37% (June)
PA right track: 36% (May) → 41% (June)
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Donald Trump, President: 34% (May) → 41% (June) approve
Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Fetterman/Dave McCormick is doing in the US Senate?
Dave McCormick, U.S. Senator: 31% (May) → 39% (June) approve
John Fetterman, U.S. Senator: 40% (May) → 45% (June) approve
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Vote for Shapiro: 57% (May) → 56% (June)
Vote for someone else: 43% (May) → 44% (June)
Issues
Respondents were asked to choose the top three issues most important to them:
2026 gubernatorial
If the election for PA Governor were today, who would you vote for?
Big changes coming to a gas station near you, or not?
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court recently ruled that skill game machines — electronic games found in bars, taverns, convenience stores and private clubs like VFWs — are legally classified as slot machines and cannot operate outside of licensed casinos.
Approximately 70,000 machines currently in those locations would need to be removed within 120 days unless the state legislature passes a new law to tax and regulate them.
We showed our participants the image above and asked them which of these two options comes closer to their view:
For the 57% of people who think the legislature should pass a new law we followed up with two more questions:
If the legislature passes a law to tax and regulate skill games, what tax rate do you think skill game operators should pay on their revenues to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania?
If the legislature passes a law to tax and regulate skill games, what tax rate do you think skill game operators should pay on their revenues to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania?
PhRMA investment in PA: YIMBY!
The pharmaceutical industry currently supports approximately 260,000 jobs across PA.
How favorable or unfavorable is your overall view of the pharmaceutical industry’s role in Pennsylvania’s economy?
Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and GSK have announced approximately $6 billion in new investments to expand their operations in Pennsylvania since the start of 2026.
These investments will create permanent and construction jobs, and expand pharmaceutical manufacturing in the Commonwealth.
How favorable or unfavorable is your overall view of the pharmaceutical industry’s role in Pennsylvania’s economy?
PA budget deadline (Which was yesterday)
How important is it to you that the Pennsylvania state budget is passed by its constitutional deadline of June 30th each year?
Minding the (budget) gap
Pennsylvania’s state budget currently spends more money each year than it collects in revenue. Without changes, this gap is projected to grow over time.
Pennsylvania also maintains a Rainy Day Fund — a state reserve account currently around $7.7B that can be used to cover temporary budget shortfalls.
*Below projections are based on the Independent Fiscal Office annual five-year fiscal outlook. Participants were shown the photo below.
Participants were provided the four options below and asked to rank them in order of which aspect of the operation was most important. The whole table won’t fit in this email, but you can view it on our website by checking the Morning Scrapple dashboard. Here’s a taste:
Ranked as most influential:
Cut state spending — 27%
Some combination of spending cuts and new state taxes or fees — 25%
Draw from the Rainy Day fund — 17%
Increase state taxes or fees — 13%
2026 midterm elections
How motivated are you to vote, if at all, in the 2026 midterm elections for governor, U.S. House, state and local officials?
Tariffs
How are tariffs placed on products you regularly purchase affecting you?
America at 250: Opinions are like…
How excited are you for America’s 250th anniversary celebrations, taking place across PA this year?
We then asked our participants why they’re excited about the celebrations, if they are at all. I’ll let you read those comments for yourself on our interactive dashboard, but needless to say it supports our view of a firmly entrenched and opinionated electorate.
We here at Scapple HQ would like to wish all of our loyal Scapplers a happy and safe 4th of July!
We survey Pennsylvania-registered voters through digital advertising, randomized text-message outreach, and email recontact with prior opt-in survey participants. This multichannel recruitment ensures a refreshed and representative respondent pool.
This survey of 644 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted from June 18-25, 2026. Results were weighted by age, gender, and political party to reflect Pennsylvania’s electorate, yielding a 95% credibility interval of ±4.14 percentage points. You can read more about our methodology here.
If you have a question, suggestion, or would like to learn more about our research offering, please feel free to email us at morningscrapple@thebravogroup.com
Thank you for supporting Morning Scrapple!
