It’s nearly Election Day, and unless you’re streaming ad-free and don’t have a mobile phone — or are a disappointed Mets fan — you’ve probably been bombarded with non-stop reminders, be it by digital device, mail or watching the Phils on this magical postseason run.
While it seems that every two years endless politicians recite the well-worn line that this November “is most important election in our lifetime,” campaigns in this cycle do have a once-in-a-hundred-year claim:
1922 was the most recent election where Pennsylvania elected a new governor, a new senator* and new congressmen and General Assembly members running in redistricted and reapportioned districts.
*This was a special election to fill the vacancy created by the death of William E. Crow, who himself was appointed following the death of Philader C. Knox in 1921 — The more you know.
That doesn’t fit on a poster, but it does explain the insane amount of political spending (more than $300 million to date) and news media attention being paid to Pennsylvania, and underscores what is at stake for who holds the political power during the rest of this decade.
With that in mind, we used our proprietary online survey platform to understand the opinions of key constituencies on important issues and which candidates and parties they support now and in the future.
While it feels at least a week early to think about 2024, President Joe Biden and his party control the national government of a country whose citizens clearly believe it is headed on the wrong track, just as the polls have opened.
By our measure, President Biden has increased those who “strongly disapprove” of the job he is doing by 6% since September, and changed from a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53-46 net to an “underwater” 45-54 score.
“Underwater” is also where President Biden, former President Trump and PA Sen. Bob Casey all find themselves for potential 2024 campaigns. Democratic voters prefer someone new to Biden for the Democratic nominee for president; Republican voters prefer someone new to Trump for the Republican nominee for president; and likely 2022 general election voters prefer electing someone new to reelecting Bob Casey. Note that in April, GOP voters preferred Trump 52-48 as their nominee.
“Inflation and rising costs” is clearly the most important issue on most voters’ minds, followed by a choice among abortion, jobs and the economy, crime, health care and illegal Immigration.
But notice how much difference there are among voters base on registered party:
For Democratic voters, Inflation is important, but close to the next two issues of Abortion and Healthcare.
For Republican voters, Inflation is decidedly the top issue, with Illegal Immigration, Jobs and Economy, and Crime.
The result of such polarized priorities will continue showing up on our televisions, digital devices and mailboxes for just another week. Not soon enough.
To view the full results from our October survey among Pennsylvania likely voters — with the ability to filter results by multiple subgroups — fill out the form below.
